Unemployment rate in Turkey in september, which was 11.4% in the same month of the previous year, decreased by 1.3 points to 10.1%. Compared to the previous month, the adjusted unemployment rate increased by 0.3 points from the revised 9.8%. The number of unemployed increased by 120 thousand to 3.48 million. While the unemployment rate among the young population increased from 18.4% to 19.6%; The idle labor force rate, which is a broad definition of unemployment, increased from 19.9% to 20.3% compared to the previous month.
When we look at the comparable periods, September 2021 - September 2022, it is seen that there was an increase of 0.9 points in the labor force participation rate between the relevant periods, with adjusted data. The workforce, which was 33 million 226 thousand people in the similar period of 2021, became 34 million 349 thousand people in September 2022. The labor force participation rate increased from 52% to 52.9%. Again, looking at the seasonally adjusted data; While the employment rate increased by 1.5 points to 47.6% compared to the same period of the previous year, seasonally adjusted employment decreased by 54 thousand compared to the previous month.
Unemployment Rate in Turkey, %; Participation rate and number of employees… Source: TurkStat, Tera Yatırım
Despite seeing an increase in unemployment compared to the previous month, it has reached double digits again in the adjusted data, which saw 10% gold after a long time. While the researches and data of institutions such as İŞKUR and DİSK point to higher unemployment figures, we have once again risen above the 20% level in the ratio of the broadly defined idle workforce, which reveals the main problematic structure and completes the definition of underemployment. In this indicator, rates of 22% were seen recently. While the weak increase in the labor force and the increase in suitable job positions explain the high level of the buy indicator, they also point to the negativity in terms of the Turkish labor market due to the long-term and structural unemployment.
While the new economy program prioritizes the increase in employment within the framework of the growth model, the imbalances brought by inflation and the high wage increases that are planned to compensate for the income distribution disorder and erosion created by this carry the risk of stratifying the problem. While the income and demand erosion effect of high inflation changes consumption habits, high wage increases aimed at eliminating these problems also increase firm costs and contribute to inflation. Of course, this spiral feeding each other cannot prevent the impoverishment effect. With the effects in this area in the new year, it is difficult to foresee an improvement in the unemployment structure in the short term. Along with 4Q22, economic weakening signals reflected in indicators such as PMI, which shows company activities and plans, and real sector confidence index, form the basis for our prediction of an unemployment rate that will be fixed above 10% again.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı
