According to the November GTS (General trade system) foreign trade data announced by TURKSTAT in cooperation with the Ministry of Commerce; Turkey's exports increased by 2.1% in November 2022 compared to the same period of the previous year and became 21.9 billion USD, while imports increased by 14% to 30.7 billion USD in the same period. Thus, the foreign trade deficit increased by 60.7% between November 2021 and November 2022 and became 8.76 billion USD. The ratio of exports to imports decreased from 79.8% to 71.4% in the said period. The 12-month total foreign trade deficit, which was $103.3 billion in October, reached $106.6 billion in November.
While Germany is the country we export to the most in November, it is followed by the US, Iraq and Russia. While exports to 27 countries that make up the European Union decreased by 0.6% to 8.5 billion USD, the share of the EU in our total exports decreased from 39.8% to 38.8%. In import items; Russia (energy) took the first place in November 2022, followed by China, Germany and Switzerland (gold imports).
While the share of intermediate goods (raw materials) in total imports decreased (77.3%) in November, the share of capital (investment) goods (12.1%) and consumption goods (10.4%) increased. In this period, imports of intermediate goods were concentrated on the side of fuel products due to the winter season and falling air temperatures, while the decline in Brent oil prices limited the effect of the increase here. In this period, energy imports amounted to 7.7 billion dollars and had a 25% share in total imports. The rate of increase in energy imports decreased to 17.9%.
In gold trade, we continue to give a deficit. Non-monetary gold trade, which had a net deficit of 1.9 billion dollars, and imports increased by 1089.9% compared to the previous year. The high course seen in gold imports compared to previous years shows that the deficit effect from this position may continue.
Turkey's 12-Month Foreign Trade Balance, Million USD. Source: TURKSTAT, Ministry of Trade, Tera Yatırım
Although the relatively high course of oil prices explained the high foreign trade deficit throughout the year, the change in foreign trade deficit in November was more limited compared to the previous months. Nevertheless, our estimations for December realizations with 12-month rolling figures show that there is an energy import bill of 95 billion dollars. The current course of prices and their upside risks (supply driven) suggest that a similar energy bill could be in effect in 2023. On the export side, the expected recession effects in Europe may create pressure, and at the same time, it has become more expensive to obtain production inputs due to inflationary pressure. At the domestic demand point, especially in the first months of the year, the movement of consumption goods imports due to wage increases can be observed. We think that the trend in the foreign trade deficit may continue due to the high level of imports.
Kaynak: Tera Yatırım-Enver Erkan
Hibya Haber Ajansı